Australian Election
Where's the "None of the Above Box"?
Australian Prime Minister John Howard yesterday announced the date of the next federal election (Saturday, October 9). Now, you may think this blogger would be a die-hard Liberal voter, but that's not the case.
The problem we face is that the system of "Mis-representative" democracy that we have means that it doesn't make a lot of difference which party gets in. At the end of the day, they are both "Pro-Big Government" and pro the system that perpetuates them! Take a look at the current administration. Forget, what they say, look at what they do!
After some initial moves in the direction of fiscal responsibility, the current government has been a shameless "pork barreler". The last budget was an absolute disgrace and only last Monday we had the latest exercise in vote buying (another $445 million thrown at health care for the elderly). The relatively sound state of government finances in Australia is the result of increasing the tax burden (particularly on mugs such as yours truly, who until recently was trapped in the PAYE system!) and the good fortune of a strong economic performance in recent years (no credit to the current government for that!).
As regards the election itself, it looks like being very close. A "Socionomics" analysis (see www.socionomics.org for more details) would note that Howard has 2 big pluses going for him.
1. The stock market is at record highs and my guess is that there will not be any big sell-off before the election (although the US stockmarket is the wild card here, that is looking very vulnerable and I expect the US market to be down sharply over the rest of this year).
2. The real estate market, although softer, is holding it's ground and we may even see a small bounce with Spring approaching in Australia).
Why are these factors important? Because they are a reflection of the "social mood" and how confident people are. When they are upbeat, they tend to re-elect governments. When people are fearful and negative, they want to blame someone and they tend to kick out incumbents.
My guess is that Howard will get back in by a very small margin. The best result, from a Libertarian point of view, would be a deadlocked parliament with the Senate blocking any major legislation. The less government action the better! Labour getting in under those circumstance wouldn't be too bad and would have the benefit of getting rid of Howard.
Australian Prime Minister John Howard yesterday announced the date of the next federal election (Saturday, October 9). Now, you may think this blogger would be a die-hard Liberal voter, but that's not the case.
The problem we face is that the system of "Mis-representative" democracy that we have means that it doesn't make a lot of difference which party gets in. At the end of the day, they are both "Pro-Big Government" and pro the system that perpetuates them! Take a look at the current administration. Forget, what they say, look at what they do!
After some initial moves in the direction of fiscal responsibility, the current government has been a shameless "pork barreler". The last budget was an absolute disgrace and only last Monday we had the latest exercise in vote buying (another $445 million thrown at health care for the elderly). The relatively sound state of government finances in Australia is the result of increasing the tax burden (particularly on mugs such as yours truly, who until recently was trapped in the PAYE system!) and the good fortune of a strong economic performance in recent years (no credit to the current government for that!).
As regards the election itself, it looks like being very close. A "Socionomics" analysis (see www.socionomics.org for more details) would note that Howard has 2 big pluses going for him.
1. The stock market is at record highs and my guess is that there will not be any big sell-off before the election (although the US stockmarket is the wild card here, that is looking very vulnerable and I expect the US market to be down sharply over the rest of this year).
2. The real estate market, although softer, is holding it's ground and we may even see a small bounce with Spring approaching in Australia).
Why are these factors important? Because they are a reflection of the "social mood" and how confident people are. When they are upbeat, they tend to re-elect governments. When people are fearful and negative, they want to blame someone and they tend to kick out incumbents.
My guess is that Howard will get back in by a very small margin. The best result, from a Libertarian point of view, would be a deadlocked parliament with the Senate blocking any major legislation. The less government action the better! Labour getting in under those circumstance wouldn't be too bad and would have the benefit of getting rid of Howard.
posted by Kevin Francis at
10:35 am
