Anarchy in the UK?
The First Steps Towards the English Civil War 2006-?
Imagine the following scenario. The Labour government goes ahead with the legislation to ban fox hunting. The ban is ignored in the countryside and at the first attempt by the authorities to enforce the ban, there are pitched battles between the police and the hunt supporters (who I will refer to hereafter as the Countryside Alliance). The police are forced to retreat, although there are arrests and many injuries on both sides. Attempts to enforce the ban continue, with the police going ahead with the plan to install CCTV in country areas. Not surprisingly, this ploy fails as the equipment is destroyed by locals almost as soon as it is installed. A nasty incident occurs when a van sent out to repair damged equipment is ambushed and set on fire.
Protests spread and the hated "speed cameras" in many areas are also destroyed. Blockades are instigated in some places, similar to those seen during the fuel crisis protests seen a few years previously. Some parts of the country are becoming virtual "no-go" areas with police refusing to patrol some districts and remote police stations are abandoned.
The government loses patience and decides to call in the Army to enforce the legislation at the start of the new hunting season. The troops are deployed, but when ordered to arrest protestors they refuse. Some even switch sides and desert! The simmering resentment in the Army over repeated budget cuts and meddling by the government (together with bitterness over the Iraq war and the poor treatment received by troops) boils over.
Chaos ensues as the government finds it cannot enforce its writ in large parts of the country. The Countryside Alliance starts to evolve as an alternative administration.....
Far fetched? Certainly. Impossible? Here's an extract from today's "Daily Telegraph" in an article "Hunt demos halt minister's roam" (read here):
Alun Michael, the minister responsible for the Hunting Bill, announced last night that he would not attend this weekend's "national celebration" of the start of the right to roam to avoid pro-hunting demonstrations. [NOTE: This was on the advice of the police]
Tim Bonner of the Countryside Alliance said: "There is now the interesting prospect that the countryside will become a no-go area for the rural affairs minister."
Lucy Ferry, 45, the mother of Otis Ferry, one of the eight men arrested in the Palace of Westminster, said: "In the next 40 days there is going to be chaos and non co-operation."
David Redvers, one of the Commons invaders, said: "There are any number of things we could do. It could be shutting down the M25 or shutting down London. In this day and age you do not need a bomb to create havoc."
This might sound "crackpot" stuff, but there are a number of factors at work here. Firstly, as previously mentioned, the "social mood" is turning negative at the start of a long-term bear market. In these circumstances, a student of "Socionomics" would expect division and dissent to emerge, with societies and politics becoming increasingly polarised (As an aside, we are seeing signs of that in the Australian election with talk of "Class Warfare" re-emerging).
In addition, the current Labour government has actually aggravated a lot of these tensions and by its constitutional "reforms" has actually weakened the ties that have held the UK together. It's also becoming clear that Blair's administration is a very ugly and nasty piece of work, in the traditions of the worst kind of collectivist government.
Civil War? Isn't that far-fetched? Well yes, but remember there's been an insurrection going on in Northern Ireland for over 30 years and in the mainland UK there have been periodic riots in inner city areas (Brixton, Toxteth, Bradford etc). It's not so long ago that people would have thought it was impossible for ex-Yugoslavia to fall apart.
Imagine the following scenario. The Labour government goes ahead with the legislation to ban fox hunting. The ban is ignored in the countryside and at the first attempt by the authorities to enforce the ban, there are pitched battles between the police and the hunt supporters (who I will refer to hereafter as the Countryside Alliance). The police are forced to retreat, although there are arrests and many injuries on both sides. Attempts to enforce the ban continue, with the police going ahead with the plan to install CCTV in country areas. Not surprisingly, this ploy fails as the equipment is destroyed by locals almost as soon as it is installed. A nasty incident occurs when a van sent out to repair damged equipment is ambushed and set on fire.
Protests spread and the hated "speed cameras" in many areas are also destroyed. Blockades are instigated in some places, similar to those seen during the fuel crisis protests seen a few years previously. Some parts of the country are becoming virtual "no-go" areas with police refusing to patrol some districts and remote police stations are abandoned.
The government loses patience and decides to call in the Army to enforce the legislation at the start of the new hunting season. The troops are deployed, but when ordered to arrest protestors they refuse. Some even switch sides and desert! The simmering resentment in the Army over repeated budget cuts and meddling by the government (together with bitterness over the Iraq war and the poor treatment received by troops) boils over.
Chaos ensues as the government finds it cannot enforce its writ in large parts of the country. The Countryside Alliance starts to evolve as an alternative administration.....
Far fetched? Certainly. Impossible? Here's an extract from today's "Daily Telegraph" in an article "Hunt demos halt minister's roam" (read here):
Alun Michael, the minister responsible for the Hunting Bill, announced last night that he would not attend this weekend's "national celebration" of the start of the right to roam to avoid pro-hunting demonstrations. [NOTE: This was on the advice of the police]
Tim Bonner of the Countryside Alliance said: "There is now the interesting prospect that the countryside will become a no-go area for the rural affairs minister."
Lucy Ferry, 45, the mother of Otis Ferry, one of the eight men arrested in the Palace of Westminster, said: "In the next 40 days there is going to be chaos and non co-operation."
David Redvers, one of the Commons invaders, said: "There are any number of things we could do. It could be shutting down the M25 or shutting down London. In this day and age you do not need a bomb to create havoc."
This might sound "crackpot" stuff, but there are a number of factors at work here. Firstly, as previously mentioned, the "social mood" is turning negative at the start of a long-term bear market. In these circumstances, a student of "Socionomics" would expect division and dissent to emerge, with societies and politics becoming increasingly polarised (As an aside, we are seeing signs of that in the Australian election with talk of "Class Warfare" re-emerging).
In addition, the current Labour government has actually aggravated a lot of these tensions and by its constitutional "reforms" has actually weakened the ties that have held the UK together. It's also becoming clear that Blair's administration is a very ugly and nasty piece of work, in the traditions of the worst kind of collectivist government.
Civil War? Isn't that far-fetched? Well yes, but remember there's been an insurrection going on in Northern Ireland for over 30 years and in the mainland UK there have been periodic riots in inner city areas (Brixton, Toxteth, Bradford etc). It's not so long ago that people would have thought it was impossible for ex-Yugoslavia to fall apart.
posted by Kevin Francis at
6:21 pm
