Australian Election Result - A Socionomic Perspective
Observations From The Remarkable Liberal Win
Well, in the end it wasn't even close. The Liberal Coalition was returned to power in a stunning victory that will see them with an increased majority and greater freedom of action as a result of gaining control of the Senate. As readers will know, I tipped a narrow Liberal win, based on the predictive model of "Socionomics" and the social mood. With the Australian stock market having made record highs in recent weeks and the housing market holding up for the time being, the social mood was clearly behind the incumbent party. There simply wasn't any great reason for most people to vote for a change. Circumstances could well be different in 3 years time, however, as a global bear market starts to gather force.
Labour, in hindsight, ran a singularly inept campaign. I suppose one should acknowledge Latham's honesty, but from a political point of view it was very dumb. The loss of two Labour seats in Tasmania, pretty much as a result of Labour's pandering to the Green vote, shows the price of failng to understand what the core issue's really were. That is, to quote Bill Clinton's adviser James Carville, "It's the Economy, Stupid!".
From a more positive point of view, the electorate voted for their "hip pockets" and rejected the collectivist policies on offer from Labour. From a Randian point of view, this is very encouraging. There has been a lot of hand wringing and anguish from left-wing commentators and blogs about how "selfish" the Australian electorate has become. This is a GREAT thing and indicates that morality (in the Randian sense) is improving. Australians have not suddenly become a bunch of grasping, greedy bastards! However, they are looking after their own interests first and focusing on life and prosperity, rather than trying to "save the world". This is a good thing, contrary to what those pushing the altruistic death-cult line would have us believe.
Some straws in the wind, however. Despite what the stunning electoral victory would suggest, opinion is becoming more polarised. The Greens ( a "mystical death-cult" in Randian terms!) gained ground to become the third biggest party. This is a very disturbing development as their policies are very much anti-prosperity and anti-freedom. Unfortunately, they are not going to go away and as the social mood becomes more divided in the years ahead they may gain ground.
Another example is the emergence of the religious based "Family First" party on the right. Again, expect to see their influence grow.
The Democrats have been pretty much wiped out. This "third force" which emerged in the 1970s has been in dis-array in recent years and this election has shown how irrelevant they have become to the electorate. Always on the left of the political sprectrum, they failed to develop any appeal to the mainstream and they have been outflanked on the left by the more radical Greens.
So where does this leave John Howard? Undoubtedly this will be seen as a personal triumph, securing his "place in history". This, more than anything, seems to have obsessed the man in recent times. Now that this has been achieved, perhaps he will focus more on what kind of legacy he leaves. As commented, Howard has been a very divisive figure. A master politician, he has perfected the art of "wedge politics". If he is wise, he will seek to truly govern for the broad electorate and tone down some of the more questionable aspects of his administration. Doing this will mean there is more of a chance of him being remembered as a statesman, rather than just a very clever politician.
Talking with a friend last night, I said that the worst result after a big Labour win would be a big Liberal victory! I hope I'm proved wrong. In his victory speech, Howard talked about "Australia being on the threshold of a new era of great achievement and could do anything it wanted." There are many challenges ahead (aren't there always!!) but in many ways Australia is better placed than most other countries. Public finances are in better shape than elsewhere. The country is well placed to benefit from the emergence of China on the world stage. The country is blessed with an abundance of resources. Finally, there seems to be emerging a new spirit of enterprise.
The challenges, of course, will be the storms ahead in the world economy and coping with the build up of credit and debt in the economy. As well, the cancer of the collectivist mindset still lurks. However, the election result seems to indicate that it doesn't have the same hold in Australia as elsewhere. When I compare the UK and Australia, for example, Australia seems much better placed. The UK, in contrast, seems to be slipping into collectivist lunacy.
Well, in the end it wasn't even close. The Liberal Coalition was returned to power in a stunning victory that will see them with an increased majority and greater freedom of action as a result of gaining control of the Senate. As readers will know, I tipped a narrow Liberal win, based on the predictive model of "Socionomics" and the social mood. With the Australian stock market having made record highs in recent weeks and the housing market holding up for the time being, the social mood was clearly behind the incumbent party. There simply wasn't any great reason for most people to vote for a change. Circumstances could well be different in 3 years time, however, as a global bear market starts to gather force.
Labour, in hindsight, ran a singularly inept campaign. I suppose one should acknowledge Latham's honesty, but from a political point of view it was very dumb. The loss of two Labour seats in Tasmania, pretty much as a result of Labour's pandering to the Green vote, shows the price of failng to understand what the core issue's really were. That is, to quote Bill Clinton's adviser James Carville, "It's the Economy, Stupid!".
From a more positive point of view, the electorate voted for their "hip pockets" and rejected the collectivist policies on offer from Labour. From a Randian point of view, this is very encouraging. There has been a lot of hand wringing and anguish from left-wing commentators and blogs about how "selfish" the Australian electorate has become. This is a GREAT thing and indicates that morality (in the Randian sense) is improving. Australians have not suddenly become a bunch of grasping, greedy bastards! However, they are looking after their own interests first and focusing on life and prosperity, rather than trying to "save the world". This is a good thing, contrary to what those pushing the altruistic death-cult line would have us believe.
Some straws in the wind, however. Despite what the stunning electoral victory would suggest, opinion is becoming more polarised. The Greens ( a "mystical death-cult" in Randian terms!) gained ground to become the third biggest party. This is a very disturbing development as their policies are very much anti-prosperity and anti-freedom. Unfortunately, they are not going to go away and as the social mood becomes more divided in the years ahead they may gain ground.
Another example is the emergence of the religious based "Family First" party on the right. Again, expect to see their influence grow.
The Democrats have been pretty much wiped out. This "third force" which emerged in the 1970s has been in dis-array in recent years and this election has shown how irrelevant they have become to the electorate. Always on the left of the political sprectrum, they failed to develop any appeal to the mainstream and they have been outflanked on the left by the more radical Greens.
So where does this leave John Howard? Undoubtedly this will be seen as a personal triumph, securing his "place in history". This, more than anything, seems to have obsessed the man in recent times. Now that this has been achieved, perhaps he will focus more on what kind of legacy he leaves. As commented, Howard has been a very divisive figure. A master politician, he has perfected the art of "wedge politics". If he is wise, he will seek to truly govern for the broad electorate and tone down some of the more questionable aspects of his administration. Doing this will mean there is more of a chance of him being remembered as a statesman, rather than just a very clever politician.
Talking with a friend last night, I said that the worst result after a big Labour win would be a big Liberal victory! I hope I'm proved wrong. In his victory speech, Howard talked about "Australia being on the threshold of a new era of great achievement and could do anything it wanted." There are many challenges ahead (aren't there always!!) but in many ways Australia is better placed than most other countries. Public finances are in better shape than elsewhere. The country is well placed to benefit from the emergence of China on the world stage. The country is blessed with an abundance of resources. Finally, there seems to be emerging a new spirit of enterprise.
The challenges, of course, will be the storms ahead in the world economy and coping with the build up of credit and debt in the economy. As well, the cancer of the collectivist mindset still lurks. However, the election result seems to indicate that it doesn't have the same hold in Australia as elsewhere. When I compare the UK and Australia, for example, Australia seems much better placed. The UK, in contrast, seems to be slipping into collectivist lunacy.
posted by Kevin Francis at
7:05 am
