US Elections
A "Socionomic" View of the US Elections
I've refrained from commenting on the US political scene but with the elections fast approaching, it is appropriate to post a "Socionomic" view and forecast.
For a considerable time, the basic Socionomic view has been that Bush would not be re-elected. This was based on the expectation of a bear market in equities and a developing economic depression. In these circumstance, incumbents tend to get the blame and people vote for a change.
So confident was I in this scenario, that a year ago I had a bet that Hilary Clinton would win in a landslide! Needless to say, I've had to pay out on that bet (only $10, fortunately!).
The situation has been complicated by the fact that massive fiscal and monetary stimulation in the US has deferred the day of reckoning and delayed the onset of a major economic contraction. In addition, since early 2003, stock markets have staged an impressive rally, although the major markets still languish below all time highs (with the exception of Australia, which appears to be out on its own for the time being).
However, now the chickens appear to be coming home to roost. The US stock markets are now in negative territory for the year and there are signs that the real estate market in the US is starting to come off the boil. Both of these are indications of the social mood turning negative.
The other complicating factor is the so-called "War on Terror". In such times, Americans tend to have a "knee jerk" patriotism that favours the incumbent. Without this, I think there is no doubt that Bush would be electoral history.
Noting that recent polls place the candidates at level pegging, my Socionomic based forecast will be that Bush will not be reelected and that Kerry will get in. I do think it will be close, however (gee, I said that about the Australian election too!).
Another interesting Socionomic point is how polarised the US electorate is and what a divisive figure Bush is. Again, these are indications of a negative social mood and further confirmation of the bear market ahead.
I've refrained from commenting on the US political scene but with the elections fast approaching, it is appropriate to post a "Socionomic" view and forecast.
For a considerable time, the basic Socionomic view has been that Bush would not be re-elected. This was based on the expectation of a bear market in equities and a developing economic depression. In these circumstance, incumbents tend to get the blame and people vote for a change.
So confident was I in this scenario, that a year ago I had a bet that Hilary Clinton would win in a landslide! Needless to say, I've had to pay out on that bet (only $10, fortunately!).
The situation has been complicated by the fact that massive fiscal and monetary stimulation in the US has deferred the day of reckoning and delayed the onset of a major economic contraction. In addition, since early 2003, stock markets have staged an impressive rally, although the major markets still languish below all time highs (with the exception of Australia, which appears to be out on its own for the time being).
However, now the chickens appear to be coming home to roost. The US stock markets are now in negative territory for the year and there are signs that the real estate market in the US is starting to come off the boil. Both of these are indications of the social mood turning negative.
The other complicating factor is the so-called "War on Terror". In such times, Americans tend to have a "knee jerk" patriotism that favours the incumbent. Without this, I think there is no doubt that Bush would be electoral history.
Noting that recent polls place the candidates at level pegging, my Socionomic based forecast will be that Bush will not be reelected and that Kerry will get in. I do think it will be close, however (gee, I said that about the Australian election too!).
Another interesting Socionomic point is how polarised the US electorate is and what a divisive figure Bush is. Again, these are indications of a negative social mood and further confirmation of the bear market ahead.
posted by Kevin Francis at
11:58 am
